In Lagos, it’s a common assumption that simply owning property in a “good area” guarantees growth. But experience shows otherwise. Location matters, yes but infrastructure, developer credibility and effective estate management are the actual drivers of appreciation. Without them, even properties in seemingly prime neighbourhoods may stagnate or disappoint.
Amid uncertain global growth in 2024-25, with inflation, currency fluctuations and supply-chain pressure impacting every market, real estate remains one of the few tangible assets many diaspora Nigerians rely on for long-term stability. That means the bar for what makes a “good” property is higher than ever. In Nigeria, this is doubly true, economic and currency risk mean your choice must be strategic.
The hard evidence from Lagos
Here are real data-driven insights showing how infrastructure, scarcity and management quality make the difference:
- The market-wide average annual appreciation for residential property in Lagos is 4-6%, according to a survey of 2025 data. The Africanvestor+2The Africanvestor+2
- But in growth corridors linked to major infrastructure (for example, the Ibeju‑Lekki / Epe coastal axis), annual appreciation is much higher – 10-15% and sometimes more. The Africanvestor+1
- Specific case: land plots in the luxury zone of Eko Atlantic rose from around ₦180 million in the early 2000s to over ₦2 billion by 2025 – a more than ten-fold increase. infrastructuremag.com.ng
- Infrastructure matters: areas with significant new transport, rail or highway access have seen value jumps of 30-45%+ in the immediate vicinity of the projects. The Africanvestor+1
- In 2025, rentals in the Ajah corridor (which your community is located) showed a 7-8% increase in rental values this year, indicating underlying demand and appreciation potential. The Nigerian Economy Newspaper
These figures show that while “location” is a starting point, the difference between average growth and strong growth lies in which location and why.
Why many properties fail to appreciate
Here are common pitfalls that prevent appreciation and which savvy buyers avoid.
- Poor infrastructure & accessibility: A property may be in a “nice” area, but if the roads are bad, drainage floods, the power is unreliable or water supply is weak, tenants and buyers will look elsewhere. Infrastructure deficits drag value.
- Developer credibility & delivery: If the developer under-delivers on promised amenities, finishing or estate coordination, the property loses appeal — even if the site is good. Buyers who check completion record, legal titles, track-record avoid this.
- Estate management & upkeep: After hand-over, the quality of estate management determines how the property ages in value. A well-managed estate with 24/7 security, uninterrupted power, clean water, good roads and amenities will maintain and grow value. Without that maintenance and services, depreciation begins.
- Ignoring demand dynamics & supply-side pressure: Over-building, lack of tenant demand, or mismatch between what the market wants and what the supply offers will limit appreciation.
- Speculating on “address alone”: Buying purely because of a fashionable location without assessing infrastructure rollout, developer commitment or estate management often leads to stagnant value.
How smart buyers spot the difference
When evaluating a property in Lagos, ask the following key questions:
- What major infrastructure projects flank the property (for example new roads, rail, water/sewer upgrades, bridge)? Data shows areas near such projects appreciate at 10%+ versus 4-5% in slower zones.
- What is the developer’s track record? Have they delivered projects on time, with promised amenities, and do they have satisfied residents?
- What is the estate management plan? Are amenities like power, water, drainage, roads, parking, security, playgrounds and gym maintained? How many years has the developer committed to managing the estate?
- What is the rental demand and supply-side outlook in that area? For example, Ajah shows rental growth of 7-8% this year – which signals healthy demand.
- What is the land/use status and legal title of the property? Confirm approvals, certificate of occupancy, survey plan, etc.
- What is the realistic growth expectation for that micro-location (not just the city average)? If nearby areas are stagnant, your property may be too.
Final take-home message
Don’t rely solely on the area’s name. Instead focus on the quality underlying the property. Infrastructure, developer credibility and estate management are not optional extras, they are the engines of appreciation. For diaspora buyers especially, verifying these factors is how you minimise risk while riding the growth potential in Lagos.
The post Don’t Be Deceived by Location: The Shocking Truth About Lagos Property Appreciation first appeared on Metro and Castle Limited.
